Anniversary of the fall of Baghdad
Today marks the fifth anniversary of the fall of Baghdad. We can remember the toppling of the statue of Sadam Hussein, and the children chasing along hitting it with their shoes as a sign of disrespect. Then came five years of fighting against insurgents. Where are we now?
General David Petreaus testified on Capitol Hill yesterday, and as usual, instead of listening to what he had to say, the politicians of both parties used his appearance to make political points. Protesters tried to disrupt the proceedings. Click “Read More” to see the video.
I have come to the inescapable conclusion that no one knows what is really happening in Iraq – including the Iraqis themselves. And that goes double for the United States government and triple for the anti-war left. If anyone did have a solid understanding of the reality of what is happening there both on the ground and in the subsurface strata made up of the perceptions, opinions, fears, hopes and dreams of the Iraqi people, a way forward would have revealed itself.
Instead, we get a multiplex spinorama from all parties. Hell, even the Iranians are spinning which tells you something about their understanding of the modern media. That little dog and pony show in Iran where a “cease fire” was reached between Moqtada al-Sadr and the Iraqi government is a perfect example of the learning curve of the Iranians when it comes to dealing with the western press. Mookie has the anti-war left convinced that he asked for the cease fire because he was beating up on the Iraqi army and wished to save civilians in Basra. The Iranians were very helpful in spinning this little fable as were several Iraqi politicians.
Read the whole thing.
Austin Bay is a reserve Army officer who has been deployed to Iraq in the past. He looks at the general’s testimony, and notes particularly the Anaconda Chart.
The Anaconda Chart is a complex graphic depicting an intricate, multi-dimensional war. It’s tough to describe even with a copy in front of you. However, the strategic concept behind Petraeus’ chart (titled “Anaconda Strategy versus Al Qaeda In Iraq”) is dirt simple: Squeeze and keep squeezing.
A commercial artist would certainly describe the chart as “too busy,” but war isn’t an exercise in esthetics. The Anaconda Strategy identifies six routes of attack on Al Qaeda In Iraq: (1) Kinetics (which includes combat); (2) Politics (which includes countering ethno-sectarian pressures and Iraqi political reconciliation); (3) Intelligence (operations from air recon to intel assessment); (4) Detainee Ops (includes counter-insurgency in detention facilities), (5) Non-Kinetics (education, jobs programs); and (6) Interagency.
Anaconda’s Interagency is a hodge-podge and a kludge of a category, including diplomacy, information operations, and –an interesting specificity—engagement with Syria.
On the chart these six broad routes become operations that converge upon and compress Al Qaeda’s command and control capabilities, finances, ideological appeal, safe havens, weapons, and popular support.
Generals have to operatonalize (execute) the abstraction of a strategy. Petreaus has.
And Richard Fernandez takes a closer look at three charts used by General Petreaus in his testimony.
Three charts deserve a closer look. The first shows the dramatic increase in “Caches Found and Cleared”. In insurgent warfare, an arms cache represents the potential combat power of its cells. The cache is the foundation upon which its armed struggle is founded. The state of an insurgency’s arms cache is a good index of its fighting power and information security. The more caches it has, the greater its fighting power. The fewer caches found the better its information security and population control.
Fernandez points to a spike in caches found that indicates a severe blow to the insurgent’s fighting power. Read it all.
The New York Times yesterday reported that CBS is looking to outsource its reporting to Time Warner - meaning CBS will be using CNN reporters and staff to fill its newscasts. Other reports say traditional newspapers are in big trouble and are cutting staff. We need to look knowledgeable people who can help us understand what’s going on.
Perhaps Senator Joe Lieberman (D-Connecticut) expresses the frustration best.
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